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Forum:2016 Pacific hurricane season/Pre-Season-June
Pre-Season Might as well have this section here, just in case. 01C.PALI 90C.INVEST Good call for the section. New invest west of the International Date Line. Not sure if anything's going to happen with it, though. Jake52 (talk) 01:39, January 6, 2016 (UTC) : I wonder if this has any relation with TD 9C. Either way, it's similar in that it's very near the equator. This system seems to have a better chance at becoming Pali, as it has more organization, and more model support. But two systems of notability within one week during the off season is incredible, even with El Nino. I'm hoping for an off-season Pali this time, unlike the dissipation of 9C. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 04:29, January 6, 2016 (UTC) ::: It's now on the CPHC outlook, with a 50% chance of development. It's looking better organized today, and I would not be surprised to see Pali soon. The CPAC really just refuses to quit! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 14:42, January 6, 2016 (UTC) ::::: This is not Ex-9-C, it's a different area of disturbed weather that formed in the area 9-C did. For the strongest super El Nino on record, I'm not surprised we got an off-season depression at the end of last year, and if this new system becomes Pali, it'll beat Ekeka's record of 1992 for being the earlest CPac storm on record. Also, it's funny how the CPac has had a storm exist in every month of the year, but no storm has formed in the East Pacific proper (up to 140 west) before the month of May. Ryan1000 20:11, January 6, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Depression One-C Ekeka. your record has been broken. --HurricaneOdile | happy holidays! and year 14:11, January 7, 2016 (UTC) : Yay! This system continues to look more orgainized then it acually is though, looks like it should be a TS by now. But I sure didn't expect the 2016 Pacific hurricane season to start this early! Also note it's size compared to Ula, it's about 10 times bigger in terms of diameter! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 14:26, January 7, 2016 (UTC) ::: A week after we saw the record latest end, we now have the record earliest start. Amazing. And this looks a lot better than 9-C did, this one has a good shot at becoming Pali. And actually, according to Eric Blake, this one beat Winoa of 1989 for being the earliest start to an EPac season ever, not Ekeka (though Winoa wasn't operationally classified by the CPHC until the 16th). Ryan1000 19:02, January 7, 2016 (UTC) ::::: I think it's already a tropical storm based on satellite estimates now. I agree that it looks much better than 9C, and it's a lot larger and more symmetrical, and is really quite beautiful, especially compared to 9C. The first advisory also displays a very small chance of hurricane-force winds. I'm amazed to see such an early start to the EPAC. I mean, how often does the first EPAC storm form before the first WPAC storm? ~Raindrop57 (talk) 19:39, January 7, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Storm Pali Yep. 45 kts/1000 mbar. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:46, January 7, 2016 (UTC) : And so the earliest named storm on record in the EPAC is official. And it's not a total weakling either. It also looks to be pretty long lasting, especially for the off-season. I'm amazed that the CPAC activity is carrying on past the new year, but it is a super El Nino, so anything's possible. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 22:27, January 7, 2016 (UTC) : :: Are you kidding me? There's already a storm out there? And something to watch in the Atlantic too! Unbelievable Leeboy1002016 22:47, January 7, 2016 (UTC) :::::There was an eye effect earlier today.--Isaac829 02:21, January 8, 2016 (UTC) :::::This actually doesn't look half-bad, Pali may even become a hurricane as it slowly heads northwest. That would also break Ekeka's record for earliest EPac hurricane ever. A major hurricane might be taking it too far though. Ryan1000 04:48, January 8, 2016 (UTC) Um... this thing is now a strong TS according to ATCF... CP, 01, 2016010812, , BEST, 0, 70N, 1719W, 55, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 0, 1010, 275, 30, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, PALI, D, If we end up getting a hurricane in early January, I will scream. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:29, January 8, 2016 (UTC) : Despite the recent increase in strength, Pali seems to be getting less organized. It looked better as a depression then it does now... ~Raindrop57 (talk) 19:29, January 8, 2016 (UTC) : LOL, this is such an oddball. Also, Dylan, about January hurricanes, it's happened before. Ekeka comes to mind. Alice in 1954 was a year-crosser hurricane that reached hurricane strength in January 1955. Although, this would be the earliest hurricane on record in the Pacific. Leeboy1002016 23:22, January 8, 2016 (UTC) ::: The pressure rose 2 milibars to 996 in the latest advisory, looks like Pali is starting to slip. It better get its act back together if it wants to become a hurricane, though it still has a while to beat Ekeka's record. 20-30 knot shear is on the rise over this storm right now, which explains the weakening trend. Hopefully Pali can survive it, it's not affecting any populated land areas (outside of, maybe a few small islands) and it would be nice to see the earliest EPac hurricane on record. Ryan1000 03:59, January 9, 2016 (UTC) ::: This thing is supposed to start heading towards the equator.... ::: I think it's safe to say that logic no longer applies to hurricanes. I can see it now, Pali rapidly intensifies to 205 mph winds and 877 Millibar pressure, beating Patricia, before crossing the equator and intensifying even more to 215 mph and 864 millibars, beating Tip. It crosses the equator again and heads toward Mexico as a cat. 1. :D ::: In all seriousness, Pali is currently at 65 mph and 996 millibars. If this thing somehow does cross the equator, I wouldn't be surprised. It's 2016, anything can happen. Leeboy100Hello! 05:03, January 9, 2016 (UTC) :::: It probably won't survive much longer due to it creeping towards the equator. The equator usually never supports tropical cyclones right over it or closing on it, so I would actually be a bit surprised to see Pali become a hurricane. It is really amazing to see the storms developing in the NHem in the middle of winter, including that one Atlantic AOI with a chance of developing subtropical characteristics. I thought the basins were supposed to be dead by now! [[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] ��[[Message Wall:Steve820 #top|''2016 has arrived!]] ��' 01:29, January 10, 2016 (UTC) :::::According to models, Pali is expected to defy the laws of physics. Most models take it towards or even over the equator, while strengthening it. The few that don't though, are better models. Pali is remaining at minimal TS strength, but the weakening trend has at least leveled off for now. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:07, January 10, 2016 (UTC) :::::Actually, Pali's making a nice comeback from having no convection. There's a continuous burst of convection over the center, and it appears that Pali is restrengthening. Not bad for a storm in January! If Pali keeps this up, maybe it will become a hurricane. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 18:25, January 10, 2016 (UTC) :::::New advisory brings Pali back to 45kts/50mph. Oddly, the new forecast is otherwise exactly the same, bringing Pali once again to minimal TS strength in 12 hours before leveling off in intensity. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 21:14, January 10, 2016 (UTC) HWRF goes bonkers with Pali --HurricaneOdile | happy holidays! and year 21:46, January 10, 2016 (UTC) Wut? http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/central-pacific/2016/tropical-storm-Pali?map=5day I have no words. Leeboy100Hello! 03:29, January 11, 2016 (UTC) : Woah! After slipping in intensity the past two days, Pali is back up to 65 mph but the pressure hit 990 mbars. This looks really nice right now, it wouldn't surprise me if we have a hurricane soon enough. Ryan1000 12:18, January 11, 2016 (UTC) ::: I wasn't too sure about that 65 mph advisory, and they didn't seem to be either, so Pali was lowered to 993mb/60mph. But now, not very long after that, I see a faint eye feature again, so it seems to be back up to 65mph. I'm really hoping for hurricane Pali soon. The HWRF seems kind of too high, but with all the tropical craziness, anything's possible. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:07, January 11, 2016 (UTC) ::::: And it looks like the next advisory will be for''' hurricane''' Pali. It's recently developed a well-defined eye, and satellite estimates have reached T4.0/65kts. Say hello to the earliest EPAC hurricane on record! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 19:30, January 11, 2016 (UTC ::::: New advisory - 70 mph. But the new forecast brings Pali to hurricane strength. The discussion said that since the eye had only recently developed, they were going to wait on upgrading to hurricane strength. Still, Pali should be a hurricane in the next advisory. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 21:44, January 11, 2016 (UTC) ::::: Everybody's joking right? Is Pali seriously close to hurricane strength? It has an eye too! You know what, I'm not even surprised anymore. Also, look how close the forecast takes this thing to the equator! My head hurts though, I think it's about to explode due to all the craziness. Leeboy100Hello! 22:25, January 11, 2016 (UTC) Hurricane Pali its here! --HurricaneOdile | happy holidays! and year 00:52, January 12, 2016 (UTC) : Alright, this is really amazing and record breaking. I can't believe we are seeing a CPac hurricane in winter! The latest CPHC advisory still has it at 70 mph, but they should update it soon. [[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] ''Talk to me''' 02:45, January 12, 2016 (UTC) ::Confirmed on the site. 85 mph.--Isaac829 03:07, January 12, 2016 (UTC) ::::Looks like Ekeka's record for earliest hurricane has been broken, and this also looks really nice. It's eye is small and well-defined on sattelite imagery, it might even become a cat 2, though I'm still thinking a major hurricane is pushing it. 'Ryan1000' 12:44, January 12, 2016 (UTC) ::::::New advisory, 90 mph and 979 mbars. The CPHC noted in their latest forecast discussion that the intensity forecast is more uncertain than usual as the already low-lattitude hurricane moves even further southward towards the equator. They hold the intensity steady a little longer before weakening it. Though Pali is over waters warm enough to support a strong hurricane, it's going to be encountering 10-15 knots of increasing shear, which should limit intensification, unless it settles down as it moves slowly southwest. 'Ryan1000' 16:35, January 12, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::The eye's starting to reappear again, if it can get a well-defined eye with convection of that intensity, major hurricane status isn't out of the question. I believe that Pali has a shot at strongest off-season EPAC storm, despite the shear. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:55, January 12, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::Pali is now a Category 2, 85 kts/977 mbar. I just... I... wut --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:42, January 12, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::::Well I'll be, this is now the earliest category 2 hurricane ever recorded in the EPac. If Pali does become a major hurricane soon, it'll beat Ekeka's record by almost 3 weeks. It's also now forecast to hang on to hurricane intensity as it moves southwest, eventually crosssing the dateline as Typhoon Pali. 'Ryan1000' 03:41, January 13, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::::Wut wut wut? This actually became a hurricane?! But it's so close to the equator! Oh, but that's not it! Alex has formed in the Atlantic! Welcome to the weirdness, everyone. 001ʎoqǝǝןWelcome to the weirdness! 22:01, January 13, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::::::This is truly weird, for sure. The Northern Hemisphere is not supposed to produce TCs in the middle of winter! And it's unbelievable to see a hurricane so equator-bound. The current forecast is saying that it will weaken to a tropical storm by tomorrow, so the fun may not last much longer. The Southern Hemisphere is also not having any storms currently. It is extremely strange and shocking for there to be no storms in the SHem and a couple in the NHem, in the dead of winter! '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 01:29, January 14, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Storm Pali (2nd time) Pali's been dramatically weakening today. It's down to a generous 65 mph, and it's structure's been sheared apart. In my opinion, I don't think it's any stronger than 50 mph. Although Pali's supposed to restrengthen after getting near the equator, at the rate it's weakening, I'm not too sure Pali will survive, the current forecast bringing it down to tropical depression strength. I still do hope Pali manages to stay together and become a typhoon. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 02:54, January 14, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Depression Pali dead. --HurricaneOdile | happy holidays! and year 14:46, January 14, 2016 (UTC) : Wow, that was quite a sudden death. Less than two days ago Pali was at peak intensity. I guess the proximity to the equator finally dissipated Pali. Farewell, Pali, you were an amazing storm to see in January! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:50, January 14, 2016 (UTC) : Bye bye Pali. Fun tracking you! 001ʎoqǝǝןWelcome to the weirdness! 00:17, January 15, 2016 (UTC) : It was fun tracking you! Bye Pali!! :) Now the next named EPac storm should take a long time to come. I would be quite surprised if anything comes between now and the end of April. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 00:50, January 15, 2016 (UTC) ::I'm gonna wait to make a new header until the next advisory makes it official, but according to ATCF Pali is mincemeat. CP, 01, 2016011500, , BEST, 0, 17N, 1732W, '''25, 1005, DB,' 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 60, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, PALI, S, --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 01:33, January 15, 2016 (UTC) Remnants of Pali and Pali is dead. and a long wait starts... --HurricaneOdile | happy holidays! and year 02:56, January 15, 2016 (UTC) : Aww, Pali's gone. I still have my hopes that Pali will regenerate, though. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 19:21, January 15, 2016 (UTC) ::: Hmm, the remnants of Pali are persisting and even seem slightly better organized today... ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 20:28, January 16, 2016 (UTC) ::: 91C.INVEST 91C.INVEST New invest in the CPac, up on WUnderground (though it should be 91C as Pali was 90C). Ryan1000 15:14, January 28, 2016 (UTC) : This is quite insane. Could we see another really early-season CPac event? This El Nino is stirring up some unusual occurrences... [[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] ''Talk to me''' 01:12, January 29, 2016 (UTC) : doesn't appear anywhere else now (could be it a test?) --HurricaneOdile | insert message here × × 15:21, January 29, 2016 (UTC) ::: Or it could've been brief-lived, either way, it's gone now. 'Ryan1000' 04:00, January 31, 2016 (UTC) ::::I am also not sure if it was a test or a short lived invest. It could have likely been a test due to the time of year. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 04:26, February 1, 2016 (UTC) May AOI.Southwest of Mexico AOI.Southwest of Mexico First AOI of the EPac season has come up on the TWO. Only 10% for the next 2 and 5 days though. 'Ryan1000' 13:21, May 15, 2016 (UTC) :Eh, it really isn't looking favorable at all at this time. Jdcomix (talk) 16:05, May 15, 2016 (UTC) :::Yeah, this probably won't develop. The models do eventually show something near the start of June or so, but that's too far out to tell for sure. 'Ryan1000' 18:20, May 15, 2016 (UTC) ::::Hi, EPac season! :) Still at 10%, but I'd be surprised if it developed. I don't forsee Agatha coming until closer to the end of the month. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 23:12, May 15, 2016 (UTC) 90E.INVEST Invested. 20% in the next 48 hours of becoming a tropical cyclone. I don't think it's very likely we will get TS Agatha out of this, but it's quite interesting how the first invest forms on the first day of the season. -Bob [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM BONNIE FORM! 01:25, May 16, 2016 (UTC) AOI.Middle of Nowhere AOI.Middle of Nowhere The NHC is now monitoring a new AOI out in the middle of the Pacific Ocean and away from land (hence the title lol), giving it a 10/10 chance to develop. Environmental conditions should make it struggle, and I would be surprised if we did see this become something. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 20:55, May 29, 2016 (UTC) : It's now dead. Agatha is coming from the other AOI. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 22:58, May 30, 2016 (UTC) 91E.INVEST AOI.South of Baja This new one is 0/20, and it might have a chance in the long run. Environmental conditions should allow it to be a potential Agatha. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 20:58, May 29, 2016 (UTC) :0/50 now. I think we could get Agatha from this. -Bob [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM COLIN FORM! 15:59, May 30, 2016 (UTC) :::Yep, conditions are looking generally conducive for Agatha. Jdcomix (talk) 16:32, May 30, 2016 (UTC) :::::It'll probably become Agatha when the AOI in front of this dissipates. Good thing it won't affect land either. 'Ryan1000' 17:50, May 30, 2016 (UTC) 91E.INVEST Invested. 10% chance in 48 hours and 70% chance in 5 days. Looks like Agatha could come soon. -Bob [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM COLIN FORM! 21:37, May 30, 2016 (UTC) : Still 10/70. Here comes Agatha! Hopefully it becomes something strong. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 22:59, May 30, 2016 (UTC) ::: Mixed feelings about this one here. Very warm SSTs, but the La Nina has increased wind shear dramatically, so the most I can see it going up to is a strong tropical storm/weak Category 1. Jdcomix (talk) 00:56, May 31, 2016 (UTC) ::::: EPac storms have typically been a bit harder to forecast intensity-wise than Atlantic storms, so it might become stronger than the NHC initially expects it to be, but this particular storm shouldn't get exceptionally strong, for this time of year. 'Ryan1000' 11:15, May 31, 2016 (UTC) :::::: 10/80. Here it comes... the Agatha storm we've been waiting for. I expect a peak of C1 or C2 strength, but MH strength will probably be hard for the invest to reach. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 21:11, May 31, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::Good agreement on track with this invest as it will head west then north and then likely back to the west. Intensity is all over the place. GFS has a long-tracked hurricane, but the GFDL, HWRF, ECMWF and its ensembles are much less bullish. Shear appears low and the waters are warm, but these low latitude deep tropical systems tend to have lots of peaks and valleys so I would not get too bullish in short range. If I had to guess, this will be an upper end tropical storm, but Invest 91E will also take some time to get going. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 22:57, May 31, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::::30/80 now, probably getting Agatha late tomorrow or Thursday Jdcomix (talk) 01:18, June 1, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::::60/80, we are going to get either One-E or Agatha tomorrow or the day after. TG 20:14, June 1, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::::::I think that it should form tomorrow. My bet is on a C1 as future Agatha's peak. [[User:Steve820 |''St]]''eve'' 20:59, June 1, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::::: :::::::::::::This storm is looking worse now. Nevertheless, NHC gives it a 70/90.[[User:IbAHAn1829tree|Sincerely, IbAHAn1829]] \Chat/ 17:54, June 2, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::::::::Mid-level shear is taking over, so development of this system has been suspended for another 24 hours or so. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 19:35, June 2, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::::::::I'm afraid a TC will ::::::::::::::never ever form from this scrub unless either this cranky shear dies or the storm exits the shear fast. You must choose fast and wisely, 91E, it's now or never! ::::::::::::::[[User:IbAHAn1829tree|Sincerely, '''IbAHAn1829']] \Chat/ 02:23, June 3, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::::::::It's practically dying now at 40/60. Goodbye, 91E. ::::::::::::::[[User:IbAHAn1829tree|Sincerely, IbAHAn1829]] \Chat/ 14:18, June 3, 2016 (UTC) Not really. Thunderstorm activity has increased, and while mid-level shear causes by a displaced anti-cyclone is forecast to pick up, this shear should relax again as suggested by the SHIPS output and current CMISS graphics. Poleword outflow should eventually increase as this system rounds a ridge in 2-4 days, opening the door for the further development, as support mostly by the GFS, who seems to be handling this system the best for a change. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 17:44, June 3, 2016 (UTC) : This storm is taking a while to develop. Come on, become Agatha! I guess the shear has been affecting it so much, but hopefully we see a TD this weekend. [[User:Steve820 |''St]]''eve'' 18:45, June 3, 2016 (UTC) :: Yeah, I hope, if not, this thing might become ULIKA, granting Mr.CentralPacific ANOTHER named storm like a genie. :: -_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_ :: Soon-Agatha is just giving us a hard time now, unlike the one near the Yucatan Peninsula, holy poo poo(it's different than just holy carp for once) that one is a daredevil! [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|Sincerely, IbAHAn1829]] \Chat/ 14:34, June 4, 2016 (UTC) ::::Not likely to develop further as once shear subsides again, the air will be super dry. Nevertheless, this is probably classifiable in it's current state. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 20:05, June 4, 2016 (UTC) :::::Now it's 20/20. It won't develop anymore. More likely, Agatha is coming from the 30/30 system to the east. This has been such a large bust, and Agatha is really taking a while to come. [[User:Steve820 |''St]]''eve'' 03:40, June 6, 2016 (UTC) ::::::It's 30/30 now. It's got only limited time for development, before conditions become hostile. I'd be surprised if this became something with the limited time it has. ''St''''eve'' 01:19, June 7, 2016 (UTC) :::::::Now it's 10/10. It won't develop. Agatha must come later, I guess. ''St''''eve'' 05:37, June 8, 2016 (UTC) 01E.NONAME 92E.INVEST I don't see this invest on the forum, but it is south of Mexico and being monitored with a 30/30 chance of developing. I hope this is Agatha! ''St''''eve'' 03:40, June 6, 2016 (UTC) :Has a small chance to form prior to landfall IMO. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 04:27, June 6, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Depression One-E Confirmed in a special TWO -Bob [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM COLIN FORM! 18:26, June 6, 2016 (UTC) : WHOA! Did not expect that! Jdcomix (talk) 18:26, June 6, 2016 (UTC) ::: Not entirely surprising to see this, this has happened once or twice before with some systems close to landfall, TD 8 in the Atlantic in 2013 only had a small chance of developing before landfall, but it suddenly jumped to depression status just as it moved ashore in Mexico. Looks like this one found an opportunity to do that too. Some of the models take the remnants of this crossing the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and becoming something in the GOM. We still have about 3 weeks to beat Debby '12 for earliest 4th storm in the Atlantic. It'd be nice to see another earliest storm record. 'Ryan1000' 20:34, June 6, 2016 (UTC) :::: This surprised me! It jumped from 30/30 to depression strength in only a day! Impressive. While it's not the most likely scenario, I hope it briefly becomes Agatha before making a landfall in Mexico. The forecast is keeping it as a depression, but I hope One-E can defy it and become a named storm despite the limited time it has. [[User:Steve820 |''St]]''eve'' 01:16, June 7, 2016 (UTC) :::: I actually dont, the Epac already has its fun last year now is the Atlantic time. The depression is actually becoming less organized. Anyways this reminds of 2010 when TD11 make landfall almost in the same place and its remnants became TS Hermine. Which actually it will be the same list used in 2010. I love this year in the Atlantic usually it have a lot of storms or quite memorable ones. Allanjeffs 01:47, June 7, 2016 (UTC) :::::: Not 1986, that year (which used this naming list 30 years ago) was a rather modest one for the Atlantic, with no major hurricanes and minor damage. List 5 (the 2013 season's list) is the most cursed one for notability and retired names, not list 2. :::::: Anyways, the past two EPac seasons had quite a bit of activity, and tied for the most hurricanes ever two years in a row. Heck, it's been 4 years since the EPac hasn't had a retired name (2012), if we get another one this year then we'll not only have 4 consecutive years of retired names in the EPac, but every EPac naming list except list 3 and list 4 will have had at least one retired name. Ryan1000 16:50, June 7, 2016 (UTC) ::::::: Now I know that this depression won't become a named storm, and I'd be really shocked if it did due to its limited time over water and land proximity. Flooding in Mexico from this TD could end up destructive, but let's hope it doesn't end up this way. Ryan, the emergence of La Nina might prevent another retired name, but anything can happen and I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one very destructive storm this season. ''St''''eve'' 18:05, June 7, 2016 (UTC) :::::::: The TD is nearing death, and should be a remnant low by tomorrow or so. A storm named Agatha is taking a while to show up. Yeah...the EPac keeps on delaying itself... and that other AOI won't become anything. ''St''''eve'' 05:35, June 8, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::: Gone. Lasted to landfall though. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:08, June 9, 2016 (UTC) June 93E.INVEST AOI: Tropical wave moving off Central America Yellow crayon drawn, NHC has it at 0/40. 5-day shows it paralleling the coast of Mexico. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:59, June 12, 2016 (UTC) : This probably has a good chance of becoming Agatha when its south of Mexico, and it would also be the latest first named storm to an EPac season since 2009, when Andres was the latest first named storm since 1969's Ava, which still holds the record latest start. Ryan1000 12:28, June 12, 2016 (UTC) :::Record prior to 1988, and especially 1975, aren't overally reliable. Anyhow, this is up to 0/60 now, and has strong support from the ECMWF, CMC, and UKmet and some support from the EPS and GEFS ensembles. This future storm should move northwest, curving around a ridge over Mexico, before in around day 5, the trough off the West Coast is replaced with a ridge, and likely Agatha bends back to the west and threatens Soccoro Island and subsequently moves into cooler water. Poleword outflow should be decent with this system, although not sure about southerly outflow. It's early but I'd say there is a decent chance this makes a run at Cat 1 status as long shear isn't too problematic which it appears looking at the model grids will be 10 to 15 knots max. The main limit I see on intensification will be dry air, at least until/if an inner core is established, given water vapor imagery, which may be why the GFS shows zlich. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 20:30, June 12, 2016 (UTC) :::This season is one of the latest starts I've seen, not counting One-E. Anyways conditions look favorable over the next 5 days. Hopefully it becomes Agatha :D [[User:Steve820 |''St]]''eve'' 21:12, June 12, 2016 (UTC) ::::I hope so, too. This 2016 needs to quickly save itself from possibly turning into the sorry horrible 2010 season that reeks of rubbish and had barely anything from except for Celia (Category 5) and Darby. (Category 3) [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|Sincerely, IbAHAn1829]] \Chat/ 14:42, June 13, 2016 (UTC) :::::It is now 20/50. It should be Agatha by the end of this week. I agree, I would hate to see a repeat of the 2010 season, that EPac season was horrible. I would also not want a repeat of the 2013 Atlantic season, either. Both were pathetic seasons. On the bright side, this year's EPac season should have moderate activity, and the Atlantic should get very active. ''St''''eve'' 22:01, June 13, 2016 (UTC) :::::::It was at 60% for 5 days a while back, but now conditions aren't expected to be nearly as favorable. YE, I'm aware reliable records for EPac don't go very far back, but from what we do know for now, Ava of 1969 holds the record latest start for the first named storm. It's possible there could've been some years with later first storms before reliable record keeping began, but they were never reported or recognized. Ryan1000 00:19, June 14, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::Ryan, that was actually "91E.INVEST" above, that system moved out and is probably dissipated by now. This is a completely new system which is east of your aforementioned system. Anyway, this is 20/60 now, and could be Agatha soon. Hopefully it does become a named storm! Agatha is taking too long to come. ''St''''eve'' 03:24, June 15, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::At 20/50, and it seems to be weakening. I doubt we will Agatha out of this, but I could see it attaining depression status. TG 16:27, June 15, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::::It could possibly be a depression but I wouldn't rule out a 40-45 mph TS. It'll only be a failure name-waste if it developed and got named. But at least we would have our first named storm, which has been taking too long to get. Conditions are expected to become less favorable by the weekend, so this better get its act together if it wants to become something. ''St''''eve'' 23:07, June 15, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::::40/60. It looks bound to be Agatha soon. Hopefully it does become our (late) first named storm. ''St''''eve'' 01:03, June 16, 2016 (UTC) 93E.INVEST Was invested some time ago. Currently at 60/60, but conditions will worsen over the weekend. This has a couple of days to become Agatha. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:35, June 16, 2016 (UTC) It only have until tomorrow afternoon to develop into Agatha if not we are going to keep waiting for the first name storm of the season. pretty incredible how the Epac and the Wpac have been dead. Allanjeffs 02:48, June 17, 2016 (UTC) :This is probably another fail; it'll need some significant organization to become Agatha. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:13, June 17, 2016 (UTC) ::I'm losing hope for this invest. If it wants to become Agatha, it will have to explode in convection and organization by tomorrow. At the VERY maximum, it will only be a tropical depression, unless it improves organization rapidly. If it does develop, it will only be a weak short-lasting fail. ''St''''eve'' 04:57, June 17, 2016 (UTC) :::It may be tropical sometime today, though it might last for only A advisory, really 93e? Agatha may form in JULY if this keeps up. [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|Sincerely, IbAHAn1829]] \Chat/ 14:23, June 17, 2016 (UTC) ::::Nope, dead. 40/40. [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|Sincerely, IbAHAn1829]] \Chat/ 20:49, June 17, 2016 (UTC) :::::Well, it's 20/20 now. Agatha might actually not come until July if this keeps up. What a wasted hunk of failure this invest was. The EPac and WPac seems like they never want to produce anything until the latest possible time. I'mma go focus on the Atlantic now. ''St''''eve'' 03:38, June 18, 2016 (UTC) ::::::Officially gone; removed from the TWO. If this keeps up we'll get something like 2010. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:05, June 18, 2016 (UTC) AOI: Middle of Nowhere The NHC is monitoring this one with a 10/30 chance of development. I'm not sure if it's related to the above system though since it is way out in the Pacific. Hopefully we finally see Agatha from this AOI. ''St''''eve'' 05:30, June 25, 2016 (UTC) :0/20. Expecting another 91/3E here, but this won't be Agatha. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] :And its gone if by Friday we dont get Agatha it will be the lastest first named storm in the Epac on record. I am quite happy because that means that the Atlantic is getting all the fun this time. Allanjeffs 18:33, June 26, 2016 (UTC) :::Gone from the TWO. Looks like we're going to have to wait until the above storm comes, if it can make it before July 1, we'll be spared the record-latest start for the EPac proper. 'Ryan1000' 19:05, June 26, 2016 (UTC) ::::I can't believe the Pacific has been so quiet. The Atlantic has been stealing all the fun, however. I think the Atlantic might get a very active season, and the EPac might be near record inactive like 2010 (unless a burst of activity happens in August/September). The Atlantic is my favorite basin so that's a fantastic thing. I kind of like the EPac too, it's the only basin which can produce storms whose remnants can reach our area. Even the WPac has been completely dead, and only now are we getting areas with a chance of development there (see the JTWC). [[User:Steve820 |''St]]''eve'' 19:44, June 26, 2016 (UTC)